Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 51¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 26

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$256.7

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 50.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,290

Combined PnL-$240.5

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,882

Combined PnL-$16.2

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 44.2¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$224.03	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.2¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$186.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$37.9
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 63.2¢	$2.7K	$2.0K	-$671.76	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 31¢	$945.01	$1.4K	+$419.97	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 53.7¢	$601.6	$588.31	-$13.29	58% 1820-1333 (3153)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 73¢	$365	$362.5	-$2.5	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Overavg 70¢	$350	$347.5	-$2.5	64% 1032-578 (1610)
0xheavy888	Underavg 73.5¢	$268.19	$264.37	-$3.82	55% 6546-5254 (11800)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 44.1¢	$189.84	$204.48	+$14.64	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$141.3	$141.24	-$0.06	52% 7497-7034 (14531)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 31.4¢	$5.8	$8.79	+$2.98	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$7.8	$7.45	-$0.35	58% 6537-4795 (11332)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,638.45

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$224.03

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

Both legs:

Over$1,563.0144.2¢+$186.13

Under$1,075.4548.8¢+$37.9

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,699.12

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$671.76

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$945.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$419.97

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$601.6

Value

$588.31

PnL

-$13.29

Record

58%

1820-1333 (3153)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$365

Value

$362.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Over

Invested

$350

Value

$347.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

1032-578 (1610)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$268.19

Value

$264.37

PnL

-$3.82

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$189.84

Value

$204.48

PnL

+$14.64

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$141.3

Value

$141.24

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

7497-7034 (14531)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$5.8

Value

$8.79

PnL

+$2.98

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.45

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

6537-4795 (11332)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.