Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$11.98

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 70.5¢

+29% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,463

Combined PnL-$16.41

Over2 traders

Total Value$332.47

Total Shares723

Combined PnL+$4.43

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 54¢	$729	$729	+$0	50% 1054-1050 (2104)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53.6¢	$345.67	$348.41	+$2.75	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
BE betwithconvicCTR	Overavg 47¢	$235	$230	-$5	56% 411-319 (730)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 58.4¢	$247.38	$228.65	-$18.73	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 43.2¢	$136.59	$144.49	+$7.9	52% 7497-7034 (14531)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.2¢	$104.09	$110.74	+$6.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$32.5	$33.75	+$1.25
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 41.8¢	$93.03	$102.47	+$9.43	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 54¢	$20.79	$20.79	+$0	55% 6546-5254 (11800)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 66¢	$2.64	$2.6	-$0.04	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 73¢	$1.46	$1.08	-$0.38	56% 1934-1543 (3477)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$729

Value

$729

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1054-1050 (2104)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$345.67

Value

$348.41

PnL

+$2.75

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

betwithconvicCTR

Over

Invested

$235

Value

$230

PnL

-$5

Record

56%

411-319 (730)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$247.38

Value

$228.65

PnL

-$18.73

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$136.59

Value

$144.49

PnL

+$7.9

Record

52%

7497-7034 (14531)

Both legs:

Over$104.0943.2¢+$6.65

Under$32.552¢+$1.25

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$93.03

Value

$102.47

PnL

+$9.43

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$20.79

Value

$20.79

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.38

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.