Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
$33.26
85.4¢ → 100¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 84.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$27.92 | 51% 19173-18552 (37725) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 86¢ | $670.99 | $682.67 | +$11.68 | 50% 9207-9127 (18334) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 21.9¢ | $845.64 | $639.28 | -$206.36 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 87.2¢ | $362 | $363.13 | +$1.13 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 21.9¢ | $483.64 | $276.15 | -$207.48 | |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Overavg 97.8¢ | $48.86 | $42.47 | -$6.39 | 52% 7299-6610 (13909) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $44.1 | $23.26 | +$0.59 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 9¢ | $4.85 | $6.73 | +$1.88 | 50% 8091-8124 (16215) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $5.29 | $2.88 | -$2.42 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
Invested
$1,321.98
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$27.92
Record
51%
19173-18552 (37725)
Invested
$670.99
Value
$682.67
PnL
+$11.68
Record
50%
9207-9127 (18334)
Invested
$845.64
Value
$639.28
PnL
-$206.36
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.86
Value
$42.47
PnL
-$6.39
Record
52%
7299-6610 (13909)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$44.1
Value
$23.26
PnL
+$0.59
Record
58%
34591-25199 (59790)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$6.73
PnL
+$1.88
Record
50%
8091-8124 (16215)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.29
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$2.42
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.