Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 0.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$5.4K
-$628.49
96.3¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 96.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$0.26 | 51% 19173-18552 (37725) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 4¢ | $2.4K | $1.9K | -$589.31 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 96.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$5.57 | 50% 8091-8124 (16215) |
PA pauleta23 | Overavg 96.8¢ | $198.77 | $199.17 | +$0.4 | 71% 18600-7590 (26190) |
FO fooooolCTR | Underavg 4.5¢ | $146.5 | $96.73 | -$49.77 | 52% 7497-7034 (14531) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.8¢ | $56.08 | $60.96 | +$4.88 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
Invested
$2,112.96
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$0.26
Record
51%
19173-18552 (37725)
Invested
$2,440.27
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$589.31
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
Invested
$1,043.83
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$5.57
Record
50%
8091-8124 (16215)
Invested
$198.77
Value
$199.17
PnL
+$0.4
Record
71%
18600-7590 (26190)
Invested
$146.5
Value
$96.73
PnL
-$49.77
Record
52%
7497-7034 (14531)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$56.08
Value
$60.96
PnL
+$4.88
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.