Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Los Angeles FC O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 67¢ · $697 held · ended Oct 26

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$697.04

Combined PnL

-$67.08

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 67¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$502.63

Total Shares901

Combined PnL-$98.13

Over3 traders

Total Value$194.42

Total Shares474

Combined PnL+$31.05

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 65.5¢	$310.82	$279.77	-$31.05	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 69.8¢	$231.81	$159.44	-$72.37	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$97.17	$97.17	-$0	62% 4966-3093 (8059)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$59.18	$89.87	+$30.69	52% 7497-7034 (14531)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 61.4¢	$58.13	$63.42	+$5.29	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$7.02	$7.38	+$0.36	58% 1820-1333 (3153)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$310.82

Value

$279.77

PnL

-$31.05

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$231.81

Value

$159.44

PnL

-$72.37

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$97.17

Value

$97.17

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

4966-3093 (8059)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.18

Value

$89.87

PnL

+$30.69

Record

52%

7497-7034 (14531)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$58.13

Value

$63.42

PnL

+$5.29

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.36

Record

58%

1820-1333 (3153)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.