Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Los Angeles FC O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $632 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 75%
1 arb excluded
$632.12
-$47.55
35.1¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 33.1¢ | $299.7 | $294.36 | -$5.34 | 50% 9207-9127 (18334) |
C4 0xc4fe...601fARB<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $107.54 | $114.78 | +$7.24 | — |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56¢ | $84 | $90 | +$6 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 38¢ | $23.54 | $24.78 | +$1.24 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 38.7¢ | $127.72 | $107.17 | -$20.55 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Overavg 47.8¢ | $86.46 | $72.4 | -$14.06 | 58% 1820-1333 (3153) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $51.02 | $43.41 | -$7.6 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
Invested
$299.7
Value
$294.36
PnL
-$5.34
Record
50%
9207-9127 (18334)
Invested
$107.54
Value
$114.78
PnL
+$7.24
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$127.72
Value
$107.17
PnL
-$20.55
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
Invested
$86.46
Value
$72.4
PnL
-$14.06
Record
58%
1820-1333 (3153)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$51.02
Value
$43.41
PnL
-$7.6
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.