Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$184.32

Smart Money Entry

80.4¢ → 56.5¢

-30% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,530

Combined PnL-$169.86

Yes2 traders

Total Value$33.42

Total Shares147

Combined PnL-$14.46

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 81.8¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	+$5.77	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 79.7¢	$495.18	$447.35	-$47.83	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 77.2¢	$501.45	$367.01	-$134.44	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 79¢	$136.5	$141.68	+$5.18	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 81¢	$79.61	$80.59	+$0.98	53% 14291-12537 (26828)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$15.1	$17.66	+$2.56	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 37.4¢	$32.78	$15.76	-$17.02	62% 24131-14569 (38700)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 56.9¢	$8.16	$8.1	-$0.06	53% 12452-11161 (23613)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.55	$4.1	+$0.55	58% 16669-12256 (28925)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 83¢	$1.73	$1.71	-$0.02	71% 18600-7590 (26190)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,783.71

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$5.77

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$495.18

Value

$447.35

PnL

-$47.83

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

SnakeBall

Invested

$501.45

Value

$367.01

PnL

-$134.44

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$136.5

Value

$141.68

PnL

+$5.18

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$79.61

Value

$80.59

PnL

+$0.98

Record

53%

14291-12537 (26828)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.1

Value

$17.66

PnL

+$2.56

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.78

Value

$15.76

PnL

-$17.02

Record

62%

24131-14569 (38700)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$8.16

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

12452-11161 (23613)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

16669-12256 (28925)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$0.02

Record

71%

18600-7590 (26190)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.