Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 38¢ · $593 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$593.4
-$1.1
38¢ → 38¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $277.59 | $277.59 | +$0 | 50% 9139-9049 (18188) |
 cassandra.torchlight | Yesavg 63¢ | $200 | $193.65 | -$1.59 | 51% 244-237 (481) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 61.6¢ | $77.92 | $78.41 | +$0.49 | 53% 13952-12306 (26258) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $30.78 | $30.78 | -$0 | 68% 32092-15447 (47539) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $12.97 | $12.97 | -$0 | 50% 7952-8033 (15985) |
Invested
$277.59
Value
$277.59
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
9139-9049 (18188)
cassandra.torchlightInvested
$200
Value
$193.65
PnL
-$1.59
Record
51%
244-237 (481)
Invested
$77.92
Value
$78.41
PnL
+$0.49
Record
53%
13952-12306 (26258)
Invested
$30.78
Value
$30.78
PnL
-$0
Record
68%
32092-15447 (47539)
Invested
$12.97
Value
$12.97
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
7952-8033 (15985)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.