Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 30¢ · $341 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$341.1
-$20.34
22¢ → 29.5¢
+34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $299.54 | $279.12 | -$20.42 | 50% 9207-9127 (18334) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 75.8¢ | $35.37 | $37.29 | +$1.92 | 53% 12452-11161 (23613) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.7¢ | $7.25 | $7.18 | -$0.08 | 58% 16669-12256 (28925) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.2¢ | $7.74 | $6.3 | -$1.44 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $5.39 | $5.16 | -$0.23 | 58% 1820-1333 (3153) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $5 | $5.03 | +$0.04 | 50% 8091-8124 (16215) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.15 | $1.03 | -$0.13 | 52% 7497-7034 (14531) |
Invested
$299.54
Value
$279.12
PnL
-$20.42
Record
50%
9207-9127 (18334)
Invested
$35.37
Value
$37.29
PnL
+$1.92
Record
53%
12452-11161 (23613)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$7.18
PnL
-$0.08
Record
58%
16669-12256 (28925)
Invested
$7.74
Value
$6.3
PnL
-$1.44
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$5.16
PnL
-$0.23
Record
58%
1820-1333 (3153)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.03
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
8091-8124 (16215)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
7497-7034 (14531)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.