Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to Score
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 75%
$1.9K
-$503.07
34.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 35¢ | $1.6K | $985.88 | -$616.78 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 65.9¢ | $537.81 | $640.7 | +$102.89 | 52% 7497-7034 (14531) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 35¢ | $227.67 | $192.31 | +$3.62 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.4¢ | $30.22 | $31.82 | +$1.6 | 50% 9207-9127 (18334) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $8.46 | $18.19 | +$9.73 | 42% 1794-2511 (4305) |
C4 0xc4fe...601f<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $17.31 | $15.27 | -$2.04 | — |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $9.88 | $9.23 | -$0.65 | 62% 4966-3093 (8059) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.5¢ | $4.02 | $2.58 | -$1.44 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
Invested
$1,602.66
Value
$985.88
PnL
-$616.78
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
Invested
$537.81
Value
$640.7
PnL
+$102.89
Record
52%
7497-7034 (14531)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$227.67
Value
$192.31
PnL
+$3.62
Record
58%
34591-25199 (59790)
Invested
$30.22
Value
$31.82
PnL
+$1.6
Record
50%
9207-9127 (18334)
Invested
$8.46
Value
$18.19
PnL
+$9.73
Record
42%
1794-2511 (4305)
Invested
$17.31
Value
$15.27
PnL
-$2.04
Record
—
Invested
$9.88
Value
$9.23
PnL
-$0.65
Record
62%
4966-3093 (8059)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.02
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$1.44
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.