Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 61¢ · $508 held · ends Oct 29

Yes61¢No39¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$507.66

Combined PnL

-$13.06

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 61¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$273.01

Total Shares587

Combined PnL-$69.33

No2 traders

Total Value$234.65

Total Shares436

Combined PnL+$56.27

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 58¢	$251.14	$201.35	-$49.79	50% 16230-16479 (32709)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 40.3¢	$162.97	$197.2	+$47.52	58% 34781-25357 (60138)
cassandra.torchlight<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$75	$59.11	-$15.89	51% 247-242 (489)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$28.7	$37.45	+$8.75	56% 21200-16956 (38156)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$16.2	$12.56	-$3.64	55% 1971-1584 (3555)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$251.14

Value

$201.35

PnL

-$49.79

Record

50%

16230-16479 (32709)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$162.97

Value

$197.2

PnL

+$47.52

Record

58%

34781-25357 (60138)

cassandra.torchlight<$100

Yes

Invested

$75

Value

$59.11

PnL

-$15.89

Record

51%

247-242 (489)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$28.7

Value

$37.45

PnL

+$8.75

Record

56%

21200-16956 (38156)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.2

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$3.64

Record

55%

1971-1584 (3555)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.