Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 56¢ · $25K held · ends Oct 27

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

Total Value

$24.7K

Combined PnL

-$191.58

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares26,522

Combined PnL-$330.25

Under6 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares22,674

Combined PnL+$138.67

Over — 14%Under — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BrotherObamaCTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$12.0K	$11.7K	-$330.25	41% 239-340 (579)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.8¢	$8.9K	$9.1K	+$104.18	54% 15672-13125 (28797)
StudyPrediction	Underavg 54.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$20	53% 4327-3811 (8138)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 55¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0	55% 700-573 (1273)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 54¢	$540	$550	+$10	53% 5300-4639 (9939)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 55¢	$194.7	$198.24	+$3.54	54% 2855-2435 (5290)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 54.4¢	$48.44	$48.95	+$0.96	56% 24841-19200 (44041)

BrotherObamaCTR

Over

Invested

$12,000

Value

$11.7K

PnL

-$330.25

Record

41%

239-340 (579)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$8,881.23

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$104.18

Record

54%

15672-13125 (28797)

StudyPrediction

Under

Invested

$2,179.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$20

Record

53%

4327-3811 (8138)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

700-573 (1273)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$540

Value

$550

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

5300-4639 (9939)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$194.7

Value

$198.24

PnL

+$3.54

Record

54%

2855-2435 (5290)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$48.44

Value

$48.95

PnL

+$0.96

Record

56%

24841-19200 (44041)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.