Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 51¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 27

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$14.31

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 50.5¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares9,051

Combined PnL-$14.22

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,218

Combined PnL+$28.53

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 42¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$77.36	50% 1084-1075 (2159)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 45.3¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$184.43	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$228.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$550.74	$506.55	-$44.18
TO torta.techCTR	Overavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$21.92	63% 7864-4668 (12532)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 52¢	$556	$560.5	+$4.5	51% 1144-1084 (2228)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.2¢	$417.05	$321.84	-$95.21	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
CH chubbytoro	Underavg 42¢	$132.37	$135.52	+$3.15	48% 75-82 (157)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 43¢	$62.84	$63.16	+$0.47	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$61.38	$62.47	+$1.1	53% 6073-5290 (11363)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 43¢	$33.42	$33.42	+$0	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$6.58	$7.42	+$0.84	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$1.46	$1.63	+$0.18	55% 7895-6404 (14299)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 43¢	$1.29	$1.29	+$0	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$3,249

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$77.36

Record

50%

1084-1075 (2159)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,673.03

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$184.43

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

Both legs:

Under$1,261.5745.3¢+$228.61

Over$550.7456¢-$44.18

torta.techCTR

Over

Invested

$1,227.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$21.92

Record

63%

7864-4668 (12532)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$556

Value

$560.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

51%

1144-1084 (2228)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$417.05

Value

$321.84

PnL

-$95.21

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

chubbytoro

Under

Invested

$132.37

Value

$135.52

PnL

+$3.15

Record

48%

75-82 (157)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$62.84

Value

$63.16

PnL

+$0.47

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.38

Value

$62.47

PnL

+$1.1

Record

53%

6073-5290 (11363)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$33.42

Value

$33.42

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.58

Value

$7.42

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.46

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.18

Record

55%

7895-6404 (14299)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.