Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tampa Bay Rays (80%) · Tampa Bay Rays at 66¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Tampa Bay Rays
5
Tampa Bay Rays 80%
$12.2K
-$15.73
65¢ → 65.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTampa Bay Rays at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Tampa Bay Rays. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Tampa Bay Raysavg 65¢ | $6.3K | $6.4K | +$48.61 | 54% 15474-12956 (28430) |
 stringXXCTR | Milwaukee Brewersavg 35¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$71.41 | 50% 72-73 (145) |
 VeryLucky888 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 65¢ | $878.16 | $878.16 | +$6.76 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 65¢ | $30.55 | $30.78 | +$0.23 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Tampa Bay Raysavg 65¢ | $11 | $11.08 | +$0.08 | 54% 2855-2433 (5288) |
Invested
$6,319
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$48.61
Record
54%
15474-12956 (28430)
stringXXCTRInvested
$4,999.99
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$71.41
Record
50%
72-73 (145)
VeryLucky888Invested
$878.16
Value
$878.16
PnL
+$6.76
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$30.55
Value
$30.78
PnL
+$0.23
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
Invested
$11
Value
$11.08
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
2855-2433 (5288)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.