Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tampa Bay Rays (40%) · Tampa Bay Rays at 52¢ · $910 held · ends Nov 3

Milwaukee Brewers49¢Tampa Bay Rays51¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tampa Bay Rays

Consensus Traders

Tampa Bay Rays 40%

Total Value

$909.73

Combined PnL

$33.57

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 51.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTampa Bay Rays at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tampa Bay Rays

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Milwaukee Brewers49%

Tampa Bay Rays52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tampa Bay Rays2 traders

Total Value$573.89

Total Shares1,118

Combined PnL+$7.79

Milwaukee Brewers3 traders

Total Value$335.84

Total Shares612

Combined PnL+$25.77

Tampa Bay Rays — 40%Milwaukee Brewers — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Tampa Bay Raysavg 51¢	$549.71	$542.28	+$5.51	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Milwaukee Brewersavg 47¢	$264.86	$289.03	+$24.17	57% 4739-3553 (8292)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Milwaukee Brewersavg 48¢	$42.76	$44.24	+$1.47	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
LP lpcapital1<$100	Tampa Bay Raysavg 45¢	$29.33	$31.61	+$2.28	74% 1143-393 (1536)
funnydayCTR<$100	Milwaukee Brewersavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.58	+$0.13	50% 3880-3856 (7736)

VeryLucky888

Tampa Bay Rays

Invested

$549.71

Value

$542.28

PnL

+$5.51

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$264.86

Value

$289.03

PnL

+$24.17

Record

57%

4739-3553 (8292)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$42.76

Value

$44.24

PnL

+$1.47

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

lpcapital1<$100

Tampa Bay Rays

Invested

$29.33

Value

$31.61

PnL

+$2.28

Record

74%

1143-393 (1536)

funnydayCTR<$100

Milwaukee Brewers

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

3880-3856 (7736)

Research grade

NeutralTampa Bay Rays at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Tampa Bay Rays

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tampa Bay Rays wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.