Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Atletico Morelia win on 2026-10-24?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 11¢ · $194 held · ended Oct 25

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$193.89

Combined PnL

-$179.13

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 11.3¢

-75% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$182.84

Total Shares801

Combined PnL-$177.23

Yes2 traders

Total Value$11.04

Total Shares11

Combined PnL-$1.91

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Noavg 51.4¢	$346.59	$168.45	-$178.14	54% 1468-1227 (2695)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Noavg 10.6¢	$13.48	$14.39	+$0.91	64% 892-496 (1388)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$6.5	$6.04	-$0.46	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$6.45	$5	-$1.45	55% 5394-4503 (9897)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Invested

$346.59

Value

$168.45

PnL

-$178.14

Record

54%

1468-1227 (2695)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Invested

$13.48

Value

$14.39

PnL

+$0.91

Record

64%

892-496 (1388)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.04

PnL

-$0.46

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.45

Value

PnL

-$1.45

Record

55%

5394-4503 (9897)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.8%

11.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$678.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

778.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.