Will Club Santos Laguna win on 2026-10-25?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$73.22

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 96.5¢

+13% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares6,673

Combined PnL+$118.26

Yes5 traders

Total Value$126.93

Total Shares619

Combined PnL-$45.04

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 95.2¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$50.11	69% 35392-15597 (50989)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 70.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$74.29	58% 34781-25357 (60138)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$419.41	$407.52	-$11.9	51% 19245-18633 (37878)
└ No leg	Noavg 84.6¢	$248.74	$277.92	+$29.18
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.2¢	$170.67	$129.59	-$41.08
RN1	Noavg 89.7¢	$228.22	$243.12	+$14.91	55% 47299-39418 (86717)
CA Cannae	Noavg 66¢	$189.38	$209.76	+$20.38	53% 14356-12582 (26938)
FO foooool	Noavg 85.4¢	$224.96	$179.49	-$45.47	52% 7663-7131 (14794)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Yesavg 30.5¢	$109.46	$91.55	-$17.91	62% 5122-3132 (8254)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 95¢	$102.19	$91.07	-$11.12	53% 12617-11294 (23911)
C4 0xc4fe...601f<$100	Noavg 58¢	$29.95	$38.47	+$8.52	—
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 95¢	$29.75	$29.67	-$0.08	55% 1971-1584 (3555)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 64¢	$24.18	$28.15	+$3.97	62% 24479-14688 (39167)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$17.25	$25.73	+$8.48	46% 1623-1895 (3518)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$11.19	$14.5	+$3.31	52% 5617-5229 (10846)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$55.96	$7.85	-$35.91	53% 1951-1708 (3659)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 81¢	$5.65	$5	-$0.65	55% 5441-4540 (9981)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 70¢	$1.48	$1.58	+$0.1	71% 19186-7798 (26984)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.53	+$0.27	58% 16734-12312 (29046)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.24	$0.27	+$0.03	50% 9228-9142 (18370)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,557.35

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$50.11

Record

69%

35392-15597 (50989)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,427.19

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$74.29

Record

58%

34781-25357 (60138)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$419.41

Value

$407.52

PnL

-$11.9

Record

51%

19245-18633 (37878)

Both legs:

No$248.7484.6¢+$29.18

Yes$170.677.2¢-$41.08

RN1

Invested

$228.22

Value

$243.12

PnL

+$14.91

Record

55%

47299-39418 (86717)

Cannae

Invested

$189.38

Value

$209.76

PnL

+$20.38

Record

53%

14356-12582 (26938)

foooool

Invested

$224.96

Value

$179.49

PnL

-$45.47

Record

52%

7663-7131 (14794)

Forecastication2CTR

Yes

Invested

$109.46

Value

$91.55

PnL

-$17.91

Record

62%

5122-3132 (8254)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$102.19

Value

$91.07

PnL

-$11.12

Record

53%

12617-11294 (23911)

0xc4fe...601f<$100

Invested

$29.95

Value

$38.47

PnL

+$8.52

Record

—

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$29.75

Value

$29.67

PnL

-$0.08

Record

55%

1971-1584 (3555)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$24.18

Value

$28.15

PnL

+$3.97

Record

62%

24479-14688 (39167)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.25

Value

$25.73

PnL

+$8.48

Record

46%

1623-1895 (3518)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$11.19

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$3.31

Record

52%

5617-5229 (10846)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.96

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$35.91

Record

53%

1951-1708 (3659)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$5.65

Value

PnL

-$0.65

Record

55%

5441-4540 (9981)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.1

Record

71%

19186-7798 (26984)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.27

Record

58%

16734-12312 (29046)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

9228-9142 (18370)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.