Querétaro FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 5.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$279.63

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 96¢

+57% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,868

Combined PnL+$279.51

Over2 traders

Total Value$82.24

Total Shares185

Combined PnL+$0.12

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 52.6¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$228.13	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 86¢	$341.2	$333.27	-$7.93	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
RN1	Underavg 69.6¢	$292.39	$302.49	+$10.11	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 69.4¢	$175.52	$225.06	+$49.55	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 23¢	$77.08	$81.33	+$4.26	52% 7497-7034 (14531)
└ Over leg	Overavg 23¢	$52.09	$53.22	+$1.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 68¢	$24.99	$28.11	+$3.12
C4 0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$69	$71.25	+$2.25	—
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$13.13	$11	-$2.13	47% 3902-4344 (8246)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 66.1¢	$2.36	$2.02	-$0.34	56% 1934-1543 (3477)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,445.37

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$228.13

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$341.2

Value

$333.27

PnL

-$7.93

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

RN1

Under

Invested

$292.39

Value

$302.49

PnL

+$10.11

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$175.52

Value

$225.06

PnL

+$49.55

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$77.08

Value

$81.33

PnL

+$4.26

Record

52%

7497-7034 (14531)

Both legs:

Over$52.0923¢+$1.13

Under$24.9968¢+$3.12

0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69

Value

$71.25

PnL

+$2.25

Record

—

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.13

Value

$11

PnL

-$2.13

Record

47%

3902-4344 (8246)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$0.34

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.