Querétaro FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$569.41

Smart Money Entry

76.9¢ → 100¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,136

Combined PnL-$64.58

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,168

Combined PnL-$504.83

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 82¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$291.41	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$159.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 82¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$450.66
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 41.3¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$60.26	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
LA LaarsY	Overavg 80.7¢	$1.0K	$762.5	-$246.25	50% 3191-3153 (6344)
RN1	Overavg 76¢	$889.9	$715.25	-$174.65	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 70¢	$447.65	$390.1	-$57.55	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 40¢	$160	$156	-$4	55% 6546-5254 (11800)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 83¢	$60.24	$44.74	-$15.5	52% 7497-7034 (14531)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 39.5¢	$24.02	$23.7	-$0.32	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 97¢	$31.04	$19.52	-$11.52	75% 2536-830 (3366)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 57.7¢	$11.12	$11.76	+$0.63	50% 8091-8124 (16215)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,023.54

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$291.41

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

Both legs:

Under$1,263.9434.6¢+$159.25

Over$1,759.682¢-$450.66

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,103.62

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$60.26

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

LaarsY

Over

Invested

$1,008.75

Value

$762.5

PnL

-$246.25

Record

50%

3191-3153 (6344)

RN1

Over

Invested

$889.9

Value

$715.25

PnL

-$174.65

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$447.65

Value

$390.1

PnL

-$57.55

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$160

Value

$156

PnL

-$4

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$60.24

Value

$44.74

PnL

-$15.5

Record

52%

7497-7034 (14531)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.02

Value

$23.7

PnL

-$0.32

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$31.04

Value

$19.52

PnL

-$11.52

Record

75%

2536-830 (3366)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$11.12

Value

$11.76

PnL

+$0.63

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.