Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$155.38

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 98.6¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,393

Combined PnL+$172.3

Yes5 traders

Total Value$42.95

Total Shares1,258

Combined PnL-$16.92

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 90.1¢	$810.53	$876.98	+$66.45	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 90¢	$665.82	$580.4	-$140.53	57% 1525-1128 (2653)
└ No leg	Noavg 90¢	$455.4	$430.1	-$25.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21¢	$210.42	$150.3	-$115.23
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Noavg 83.6¢	$508.41	$537.35	+$28.94	81% 2088-482 (2570)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 73¢	$386.01	$440.48	+$62.4	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.4¢	$328.9	$332.84	+$3.93	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$63.67	$74.49	+$10.82	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$46.48	$44.06	-$2.41	53% 12452-11161 (23613)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 73¢	$11.97	$13.93	+$1.97	53% 1950-1706 (3656)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$11.15	$12.49	+$1.34	46% 1616-1883 (3499)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$20.19	$11.65	-$8.54	52% 7497-7034 (14531)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$7.29	$9.41	+$2.12	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$19.44	$7.91	-$11.54	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.05	$4.25	+$0.2	58% 16669-12256 (28925)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$1.8	$1.5	-$0.3	55% 5431-4532 (9963)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$810.53

Value

$876.98

PnL

+$66.45

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$665.82

Value

$580.4

PnL

-$140.53

Record

57%

1525-1128 (2653)

Both legs:

No$455.490¢-$25.3

Yes$210.4221¢-$115.23

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Invested

$508.41

Value

$537.35

PnL

+$28.94

Record

81%

2088-482 (2570)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$386.01

Value

$440.48

PnL

+$62.4

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

SnakeBall

Invested

$328.9

Value

$332.84

PnL

+$3.93

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$63.67

Value

$74.49

PnL

+$10.82

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$46.48

Value

$44.06

PnL

-$2.41

Record

53%

12452-11161 (23613)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$11.97

Value

$13.93

PnL

+$1.97

Record

53%

1950-1706 (3656)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.15

Value

$12.49

PnL

+$1.34

Record

46%

1616-1883 (3499)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.19

Value

$11.65

PnL

-$8.54

Record

52%

7497-7034 (14531)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.29

Value

$9.41

PnL

+$2.12

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.44

Value

$7.91

PnL

-$11.54

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

16669-12256 (28925)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

55%

5431-4532 (9963)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.