Will Querétaro FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $413 held · ended Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$413.12

Combined PnL

-$17.56

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 99.3¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$299.47

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$13.41

Yes4 traders

Total Value$113.64

Total Shares509

Combined PnL-$30.97

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 92.3¢	$222.81	$236.39	+$13.58	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$72.43	$56.7	-$15.73	57% 1525-1128 (2653)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$64	$51	-$13	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 92¢	$19.68	$19.64	-$0.04	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
RN1<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19	$18.9	-$0.1	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15.93	$15.82	-$0.11	53% 1950-1706 (3656)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$7.52	$5.23	-$2.29	53% 12452-11161 (23613)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 75¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	58% 16669-12256 (28925)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.73	+$0.02	55% 5431-4532 (9963)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.66	$0.72	+$0.06	50% 8091-8124 (16215)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$222.81

Value

$236.39

PnL

+$13.58

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.43

Value

$56.7

PnL

-$15.73

Record

57%

1525-1128 (2653)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64

Value

$51

PnL

-$13

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$19.68

Value

$19.64

PnL

-$0.04

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

RN1<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$18.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$15.93

Value

$15.82

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

1950-1706 (3656)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.52

Value

$5.23

PnL

-$2.29

Record

53%

12452-11161 (23613)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

16669-12256 (28925)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

5431-4532 (9963)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.