Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 53¢ · $373 held · ends Oct 26

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$373.47

Combined PnL

$14.09

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 53.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$279.91

Total Shares523

Combined PnL+$13.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$93.55

Total Shares201

Combined PnL+$1.01

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 51¢	$255	$267.5	+$12.5	58% 32399-23548 (55947)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$53.28	$51.62	+$0.56	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$43.29	$41.94	+$0.45	53% 13688-12137 (25825)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 51¢	$11.84	$12.42	+$0.58	50% 7903-7970 (15873)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$255

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.28

Value

$51.62

PnL

+$0.56

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.29

Value

$41.94

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

13688-12137 (25825)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$11.84

Value

$12.42

PnL

+$0.58

Record

50%

7903-7970 (15873)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.