Querétaro FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to Score

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 100¢ · $162 held · ended Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$162.41

Combined PnL

$17.85

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$118.88

Total Shares276

Combined PnL+$27.29

Yes4 traders

Total Value$43.53

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$9.44

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 38.7¢	$84.78	$94.2	+$9.42	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$24.8	$22.8	-$2	52% 7497-7034 (14531)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.41	$17.63	+$17.22	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$17.86	$10.83	-$7.03	72% 1300-499 (1799)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$7.41	$7.15	-$0.26	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$6.39	$7.05	+$0.66	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.75	-$0.15	53% 1950-1706 (3656)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$84.78

Value

$94.2

PnL

+$9.42

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.8

Value

$22.8

PnL

-$2

Record

52%

7497-7034 (14531)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Invested

$0.41

Value

$17.63

PnL

+$17.22

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.86

Value

$10.83

PnL

-$7.03

Record

72%

1300-499 (1799)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.41

Value

$7.15

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$6.39

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0.66

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

1950-1706 (3656)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.