Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla: O/U 5.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 91¢ · $585 held · ended Oct 25

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$585.18

Combined PnL

$2.29

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 90.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$390.53

Total Shares433

Combined PnL-$5.37

Over4 traders

Total Value$194.65

Total Shares1,715

Combined PnL+$7.66

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 91.1¢	$320.57	$322.08	+$1.51	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 9.3¢	$87.06	$98.74	+$11.68	51% 18185-17517 (35702)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 93¢	$75.33	$68.45	-$6.89	50% 9139-9049 (18188)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$56.52	$58.4	+$1.88	50% 7952-8033 (15985)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 10.9¢	$37.6	$29.33	-$8.27	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$5.81	$8.19	+$2.38	51% 7195-6826 (14021)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$320.57

Value

$322.08

PnL

+$1.51

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.06

Value

$98.74

PnL

+$11.68

Record

51%

18185-17517 (35702)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$75.33

Value

$68.45

PnL

-$6.89

Record

50%

9139-9049 (18188)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.52

Value

$58.4

PnL

+$1.88

Record

50%

7952-8033 (15985)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.6

Value

$29.33

PnL

-$8.27

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.81

Value

$8.19

PnL

+$2.38

Record

51%

7195-6826 (14021)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.