Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla: O/U 4.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$2.3K
-$18.18
73.6¢ → 75.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 73.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$13.36 | 51% 18185-17517 (35702) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 69.9¢ | $438.51 | $432.74 | -$5.77 | 68% 32092-15447 (47539) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 32¢ | $235.2 | $235.2 | +$0 | 55% 45430-37648 (83078) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 83¢ | $166 | $138 | -$28 | 56% 6496-5192 (11688) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $97.52 | $99.64 | +$2.12 | 50% 7952-8033 (15985) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 80¢ | $14.23 | $14.34 | +$0.11 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
Invested
$1,414.72
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.36
Record
51%
18185-17517 (35702)
Invested
$438.51
Value
$432.74
PnL
-$5.77
Record
68%
32092-15447 (47539)
RN1CTRInvested
$235.2
Value
$235.2
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
45430-37648 (83078)
0xheavy888Invested
$166
Value
$138
PnL
-$28
Record
56%
6496-5192 (11688)
Invested
$97.52
Value
$99.64
PnL
+$2.12
Record
50%
7952-8033 (15985)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.23
Value
$14.34
PnL
+$0.11
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.