Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 46¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
2 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$80.82
53.6¢ → 46¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 45.6¢ | $550.84 | $629.27 | +$78.43 | 51% 18185-17517 (35702) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.6¢ | $428.11 | $502.45 | +$74.34 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45¢ | $122.73 | $126.82 | +$4.09 | |
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $399.18 | $420.09 | +$20.91 | 81% 1987-465 (2452) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 61¢ | $256.5 | $222.86 | -$33.64 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 34¢ | $142.68 | $197.23 | +$54.55 | |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 55¢ | $440.13 | $399.23 | -$40.89 | 55% 45430-37648 (83078) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1 | Underavg 52.3¢ | $111.29 | $99.96 | -$11.33 | 53% 1928-1689 (3617) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 67¢ | $134 | $98 | -$36 | 56% 6496-5192 (11688) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $37.65 | $38.09 | +$0.44 | 51% 7195-6826 (14021) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $14 | $20.96 | +$6.96 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
Invested
$550.84
Value
$629.27
PnL
+$78.43
Record
51%
18185-17517 (35702)
Both legs:
Invested
$399.18
Value
$420.09
PnL
+$20.91
Record
81%
1987-465 (2452)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$440.13
Value
$399.23
PnL
-$40.89
Record
55%
45430-37648 (83078)
Invested
$111.29
Value
$99.96
PnL
-$11.33
Record
53%
1928-1689 (3617)
0xheavy888Invested
$134
Value
$98
PnL
-$36
Record
56%
6496-5192 (11688)
Invested
$37.65
Value
$38.09
PnL
+$0.44
Record
51%
7195-6826 (14021)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$14
Value
$20.96
PnL
+$6.96
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.