Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (80%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla: O/U 2.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 21¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 78%
$1.1K
-$354.32
30.4¢ → 20.5¢
-33% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 44.5¢ | $1.0K | $565.17 | -$440.73 | 58% 33251-24142 (57393) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 11.2¢ | $205.74 | $348.84 | +$143.1 | 68% 32092-15447 (47539) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $49.78 | $50.46 | +$0.68 | 51% 7195-6826 (14021) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $88 | $50 | -$38 | 56% 6496-5192 (11688) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 80.5¢ | $32.52 | $32.91 | +$0.39 | 51% 18185-17517 (35702) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $41.36 | $17.39 | -$23.97 | 55% 14891-12190 (27081) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $3.82 | $7.97 | +$4.14 | 50% 7952-8033 (15985) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $1.04 | $1.04 | +$0 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $0.15 | $0.21 | +$0.07 | 55% 45430-37648 (83078) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,005.9
Value
$565.17
PnL
-$440.73
Record
58%
33251-24142 (57393)
Invested
$205.74
Value
$348.84
PnL
+$143.1
Record
68%
32092-15447 (47539)
Invested
$49.78
Value
$50.46
PnL
+$0.68
Record
51%
7195-6826 (14021)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$88
Value
$50
PnL
-$38
Record
56%
6496-5192 (11688)
Invested
$32.52
Value
$32.91
PnL
+$0.39
Record
51%
18185-17517 (35702)
Invested
$41.36
Value
$17.39
PnL
-$23.97
Record
55%
14891-12190 (27081)
Invested
$3.82
Value
$7.97
PnL
+$4.14
Record
50%
7952-8033 (15985)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.04
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.21
PnL
+$0.07
Record
55%
45430-37648 (83078)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.