Spread: Atlas FC (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Club Puebla (67%) · Club Puebla at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Club Puebla
6
Club Puebla 67%
$1.5K
-$363.49
66.9¢ → 85¢
+27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralClub Puebla at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Club Pueblaavg 66.4¢ | $649.81 | $626.79 | -$23.01 | 58% 33251-24142 (57393) |
 0xheavy888 | Club Pueblaavg 65¢ | $520 | $408 | -$112 | 56% 6496-5192 (11688) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Atlas FCavg 28.7¢ | $448.28 | $296.46 | -$151.82 | 51% 18185-17517 (35702) |
FO foooool | Club Pueblaavg 73¢ | $250 | $174.66 | -$75.34 | 51% 7195-6826 (14021) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Club Pueblaavg 73.7¢ | $16.41 | $15.33 | -$1.08 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Atlas FCavg 53¢ | $3.18 | $2.94 | -$0.24 | 64% 891-496 (1387) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$649.81
Value
$626.79
PnL
-$23.01
Record
58%
33251-24142 (57393)
0xheavy888Invested
$520
Value
$408
PnL
-$112
Record
56%
6496-5192 (11688)
Invested
$448.28
Value
$296.46
PnL
-$151.82
Record
51%
18185-17517 (35702)
Invested
$250
Value
$174.66
PnL
-$75.34
Record
51%
7195-6826 (14021)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$16.41
Value
$15.33
PnL
-$1.08
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
Invested
$3.18
Value
$2.94
PnL
-$0.24
Record
64%
891-496 (1387)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.