Will Club Puebla win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$5.65

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 79.5¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,340

Combined PnL+$10.86

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.79

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$5.2

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 81.5¢	$540.26	$546.8	+$6.55	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
oieshfn345	Noavg 82¢	$293.56	$295.77	+$2.2	58% 1518-1121 (2639)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 81¢	$143.78	$140.92	+$3.79	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 86.8¢	$139.89	$137.81	-$2.07	53% 12388-11078 (23466)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$24.86	$24.5	-$0.36	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.59	$5.21	+$0.62	53% 1928-1689 (3617)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.45	$4.37	-$0.08	46% 1592-1842 (3434)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$8.4	$3.09	-$5.3	51% 7195-6826 (14021)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 83¢	$1.73	$1.94	+$0.21	53% 13952-12306 (26258)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.6	$0.7	+$0.1	54% 5269-4412 (9681)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$540.26

Value

$546.8

PnL

+$6.55

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

oieshfn345

Invested

$293.56

Value

$295.77

PnL

+$2.2

Record

58%

1518-1121 (2639)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$143.78

Value

$140.92

PnL

+$3.79

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$139.89

Value

$137.81

PnL

-$2.07

Record

53%

12388-11078 (23466)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$24.86

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$0.36

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$0.62

Record

53%

1928-1689 (3617)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

1592-1842 (3434)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$5.3

Record

51%

7195-6826 (14021)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

13952-12306 (26258)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

5269-4412 (9681)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.