Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla: 1st Half O/U 0.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 74¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 33%
$2.0K
$0.29
Research grade
NeutralOver at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 74¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0 | 61% 4757-3017 (7774) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 26¢ | $470.79 | $470.88 | +$0.09 | 50% 7952-8033 (15985) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $5 | $5.2 | +$0.2 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.