Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 34¢ · $387 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$386.59
$79.48
24.3¢ → 33.5¢
+38% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $259.27 | $334.8 | +$75.53 | 68% 32092-15447 (47539) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $22.44 | $28.54 | +$6.1 | 53% 12388-11078 (23466) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $4.82 | $4.84 | +$0.03 | 53% 1928-1689 (3617) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $4 | $4.44 | +$0.44 | 46% 1592-1842 (3434) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $4.33 | +$0.08 | 54% 5269-4412 (9681) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $2.24 | $3.57 | +$1.33 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $5.5 | $3.38 | -$2.13 | 53% 13952-12306 (26258) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $4.6 | $2.7 | -$1.9 | 55% 14891-12190 (27081) |
Invested
$259.27
Value
$334.8
PnL
+$75.53
Record
68%
32092-15447 (47539)
Invested
$22.44
Value
$28.54
PnL
+$6.1
Record
53%
12388-11078 (23466)
Invested
$4.82
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
1928-1689 (3617)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.44
PnL
+$0.44
Record
46%
1592-1842 (3434)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$4.33
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
5269-4412 (9681)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.24
Value
$3.57
PnL
+$1.33
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$3.38
PnL
-$2.13
Record
53%
13952-12306 (26258)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$1.9
Record
55%
14891-12190 (27081)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.