Will Atlas FC win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 56¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$231.08

Smart Money Entry

41¢ → 55.5¢

+35% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,333

Combined PnL-$270.7

Yes5 traders

Total Value$538.76

Total Shares873

Combined PnL+$39.62

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 44.6¢	$437.49	$495.77	+$58.27	58% 1518-1121 (2639)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 22.2¢	$433.78	$477.22	+$43.44	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
└ No leg	Noavg 22.2¢	$263.53	$249.69	-$13.84
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.1¢	$170.25	$227.53	+$57.28
DE DelidelaDele	Noavg 39¢	$811.21	$436.8	-$322.4	48% 29-31 (60)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$245	$247.5	+$2.5	64% 1008-571 (1579)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Yesavg 61¢	$124.44	$161.16	+$36.72	61% 4757-3017 (7774)
SA Saber-greedCTR	Yesavg 59¢	$90.55	$118.18	-$0.77	59% 2327-1610 (3937)
FO foooool	Noavg 46¢	$101.17	$100.1	-$1.08	51% 7195-6826 (14021)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$86.63	$73.87	-$12.76	53% 12388-11078 (23466)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.2¢	$46.75	$47.94	+$1.19
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76.1¢	$39.88	$25.93	-$13.95
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 42¢	$32.25	$31.5	-$0.75	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$7.7	$7.9	+$0.2	54% 5269-4412 (9681)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$3.06	$4.03	+$0.97	53% 1928-1689 (3617)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 39¢	$6.4	$3.45	-$2.96	53% 13952-12306 (26258)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 34.9¢	$4.01	$2.42	-$1.59	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.05	-$0.2	58% 16366-12017 (28383)

oieshfn345

Invested

$437.49

Value

$495.77

PnL

+$58.27

Record

58%

1518-1121 (2639)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$433.78

Value

$477.22

PnL

+$43.44

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

Both legs:

No$263.5322.2¢-$13.84

Yes$170.2559.1¢+$57.28

DelidelaDele

Invested

$811.21

Value

$436.8

PnL

-$322.4

Record

48%

29-31 (60)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Yes

Invested

$245

Value

$247.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

1008-571 (1579)

Forecastication2CTR

Yes

Invested

$124.44

Value

$161.16

PnL

+$36.72

Record

61%

4757-3017 (7774)

Saber-greedCTR

Yes

Invested

$90.55

Value

$118.18

PnL

-$0.77

Record

59%

2327-1610 (3937)

foooool

Invested

$101.17

Value

$100.1

PnL

-$1.08

Record

51%

7195-6826 (14021)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$86.63

Value

$73.87

PnL

-$12.76

Record

53%

12388-11078 (23466)

Both legs:

No$46.7549.2¢+$1.19

Yes$39.8876.1¢-$13.95

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$32.25

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$0.75

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.7

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

5269-4412 (9681)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

1928-1689 (3617)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$2.96

Record

53%

13952-12306 (26258)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.01

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$1.59

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

16366-12017 (28383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.