Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will CF América win on 2026-09-05?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 30¢ · $908 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$908.36
-$10.81
32.1¢ → 29.5¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 37.4¢ | $563.68 | $548.48 | -$74.32 | 58% 36504-26536 (63040) |
CL claudesportsCTR | Noavg 25¢ | $278.5 | $339.77 | +$61.27 | 45% 219-265 (484) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $11.89 | $14.97 | +$3.07 | 50% 9301-9249 (18550) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $4.45 | $3.87 | -$1.06 | — |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $1.05 | $1.28 | +$0.23 | 55% 2064-1680 (3744) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$563.68
Value
$548.48
PnL
-$74.32
Record
58%
36504-26536 (63040)
Invested
$278.5
Value
$339.77
PnL
+$61.27
Record
45%
219-265 (484)
Invested
$11.89
Value
$14.97
PnL
+$3.07
Record
50%
9301-9249 (18550)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$4.45
Value
$3.87
PnL
-$1.06
Record
—
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.23
Record
55%
2064-1680 (3744)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.