CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 5.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $57K held · ended Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$57.1K

Combined PnL

$273.92

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 99.6¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$57.1K

Total Shares57,375

Combined PnL+$292.04

Over2 traders

Total Value$4.26

Total Shares1,066

Combined PnL-$18.12

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99.1¢	$56.8K	$57.1K	+$291.18	66% 1082-548 (1630)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 98¢	$52.92	$53.78	+$0.86	55% 2028-1637 (3665)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 2.1¢	$22.08	$4.24	-$17.84	54% 49727-41784 (91511)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.02	-$0.28	50% 8166-8189 (16355)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$56,800.54

Value

$57.1K

PnL

+$291.18

Record

66%

1082-548 (1630)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$52.92

Value

$53.78

PnL

+$0.86

Record

55%

2028-1637 (3665)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.08

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$17.84

Record

54%

49727-41784 (91511)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

8166-8189 (16355)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.