CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 4.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 73¢ · $745 held · ended Oct 26

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$745.04

Combined PnL

-$25.79

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 73¢

-11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$630.54

Total Shares780

Combined PnL-$10.76

Over3 traders

Total Value$114.5

Total Shares599

Combined PnL-$15.03

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 83.2¢	$263.74	$253.6	-$10.14	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
0xheavy888	Underavg 80¢	$160	$160	-$1	55% 6546-5254 (11800)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 82¢	$72.98	$71.2	-$1.78	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
C4 0xc4fe...601f<$100	Underavg 85¢	$63.95	$65.45	+$1.5	—
SK SkurwysynCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$66.45	$63.29	-$3.16	49% 243-248 (491)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 79.8¢	$49.01	$49.1	+$0.09	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$51.79	$41.43	-$10.36	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 78.3¢	$21.69	$22.15	+$0.46	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$11.28	$9.78	-$1.5	58% 1820-1333 (3153)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 79¢	$8.93	$9.03	+$0.1	56% 1934-1543 (3477)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$263.74

Value

$253.6

PnL

-$10.14

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$160

Value

$160

PnL

-$1

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$72.98

Value

$71.2

PnL

-$1.78

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

0xc4fe...601f<$100

Under

Invested

$63.95

Value

$65.45

PnL

+$1.5

Record

—

SkurwysynCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.45

Value

$63.29

PnL

-$3.16

Record

49%

243-248 (491)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$49.01

Value

$49.1

PnL

+$0.09

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.79

Value

$41.43

PnL

-$10.36

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$21.69

Value

$22.15

PnL

+$0.46

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.28

Value

$9.78

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

1820-1333 (3153)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$8.93

Value

$9.03

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.