Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 3.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 36¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$2.4K
-$33.56
36¢ → 35.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 36%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 36¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$27.88 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 36¢ | $194 | $191.31 | -$2.69 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 36¢ | $180 | $177.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $34.56 | $34.08 | -$0.48 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $1.08 | $1.07 | -$0.02 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
Invested
$2,007
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$27.88
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Invested
$194
Value
$191.31
PnL
-$2.69
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$180
Value
$177.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$34.56
Value
$34.08
PnL
-$0.48
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.07
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.