CF América vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 1.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$143.35

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,411

Combined PnL-$84.35

Under4 traders

Total Value$241.04

Total Shares3,449

Combined PnL-$59.01

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 96.5¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$80.26	81% 2025-467 (2492)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 89.7¢	$179.4	$175.9	-$3.5	58% 1820-1333 (3153)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 7.8¢	$139.36	$107.37	-$31.99	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 14.5¢	$81.63	$67.95	-$13.68	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 7.2¢	$78.72	$65.6	-$13.12	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 81¢	$29.16	$33.84	+$0.18	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$2.25	$1.48	-$0.77	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$0.34	$0.12	-$0.22	58% 34591-25199 (59790)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$3,253.76

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$80.26

Record

81%

2025-467 (2492)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$179.4

Value

$175.9

PnL

-$3.5

Record

58%

1820-1333 (3153)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$139.36

Value

$107.37

PnL

-$31.99

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$81.63

Value

$67.95

PnL

-$13.68

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.72

Value

$65.6

PnL

-$13.12

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$29.16

Value

$33.84

PnL

+$0.18

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.77

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.22

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.