CF América vs. CF Pachuca: CF América O/U 2.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 98¢ · $184 held · ended Oct 26

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

Total Value

$183.83

Combined PnL

$3.49

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 97.5¢

+21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$175.22

Total Shares218

Combined PnL+$0.54

Over1 trader

Total Value$8.6

Total Shares27

Combined PnL+$2.96

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 86.4¢	$98.52	$100.89	+$2.37	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 65.6¢	$20.5	$20.94	+$0.44	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
C4 0xc4fe...601f<$100	Underavg 79¢	$21.24	$18.28	-$2.96	—
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 90¢	$16.57	$16.66	+$0.09	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 66¢	$14.52	$14.96	+$0.44	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$5.64	$8.6	+$2.96	58% 6537-4795 (11332)
FO forecastication4<$100	Underavg 65¢	$3.34	$3.5	+$0.15	49% 985-1045 (2030)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$98.52

Value

$100.89

PnL

+$2.37

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$20.5

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

0xc4fe...601f<$100

Under

Invested

$21.24

Value

$18.28

PnL

-$2.96

Record

—

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$16.57

Value

$16.66

PnL

+$0.09

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$14.52

Value

$14.96

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.64

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$2.96

Record

58%

6537-4795 (11332)

forecastication4<$100

Under

Invested

$3.34

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

985-1045 (2030)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.