Spread: CF América (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CF Pachuca (80%) · CF Pachuca at 78¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

CF América22¢CF Pachuca78¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CF Pachuca

Consensus Traders

CF Pachuca 80%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$56.29

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 78¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCF Pachuca at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CF Pachuca

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

CF América22%

CF Pachuca78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CF Pachuca4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,283

Combined PnL+$691.79

CF América1 trader

Total Value$273.2

Total Shares2,732

Combined PnL-$635.51

CF Pachuca — 80%CF América — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	CF Pachucaavg 67.4¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$665.83	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	CF Américaavg 33.3¢	$908.71	$273.2	-$635.51	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
0xheavy888	CF Pachucaavg 65¢	$130	$164	-$1	55% 6546-5254 (11800)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	CF Pachucaavg 64¢	$66.6	$85.28	+$18.68	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
HRTrading<$100	CF Pachucaavg 67¢	$24.12	$32.4	+$8.28	56% 1934-1543 (3477)

UpTheBlues

CF Pachuca

Invested

$1,983.1

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$665.83

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

GoalLineGhostCTR

CF América

Invested

$908.71

Value

$273.2

PnL

-$635.51

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

0xheavy888

CF Pachuca

Invested

$130

Value

$164

PnL

-$1

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

LuckyLoo<$100

CF Pachuca

Invested

$66.6

Value

$85.28

PnL

+$18.68

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

HRTrading<$100

CF Pachuca

Invested

$24.12

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$8.28

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

Research grade

NeutralCF Pachuca at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

CF Pachuca

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CF Pachuca wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.