Spread: CF Pachuca (-1.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold CF América (57%) · CF América at 90¢ · $645 held · ended Oct 26

CF Pachuca10¢CF América90¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CF América

Consensus Traders

CF América 57%

Total Value

$645.22

Combined PnL

-$5.43

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 90.1¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCF América at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CF América

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

CF Pachuca10%

CF América90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CF América4 traders

Total Value$622.34

Total Shares661

Combined PnL-$3.6

CF Pachuca3 traders

Total Value$22.88

Total Shares321

Combined PnL-$1.83

CF América — 57%CF Pachuca — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	CF Américaavg 89.2¢	$272.56	$275.31	+$2.75	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
UP UpTheBlues	CF Américaavg 97.7¢	$144.29	$129.22	-$15.07	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
GO GoalLineGhost	CF Américaavg 85.8¢	$115.61	$123.35	+$7.73	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	CF Américaavg 95¢	$93.48	$94.46	+$0.98	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	CF Pachucaavg 6¢	$12.78	$14.91	+$2.13	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
C4 0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100	CF Pachucaavg 11¢	$10.82	$6.89	-$3.94	—
HRTradingCTR<$100	CF Pachucaavg 11¢	$1.1	$1.08	-$0.02	56% 1934-1543 (3477)

RN1

CF América

Invested

$272.56

Value

$275.31

PnL

+$2.75

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

UpTheBlues

CF América

Invested

$144.29

Value

$129.22

PnL

-$15.07

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

GoalLineGhost

CF América

Invested

$115.61

Value

$123.35

PnL

+$7.73

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

LuckyLoo<$100

CF América

Invested

$93.48

Value

$94.46

PnL

+$0.98

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

CF Pachuca

Invested

$12.78

Value

$14.91

PnL

+$2.13

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100

CF Pachuca

Invested

$10.82

Value

$6.89

PnL

-$3.94

Record

—

HRTradingCTR<$100

CF Pachuca

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

Research grade

NeutralCF América at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

CF América

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CF América wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.5%

90.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.