Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-10-25?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 17¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 26

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

35.9¢ → 17¢

-53% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares10,594

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No4 traders

Total Value$384.58

Total Shares446

Combined PnL+$60.55

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$29.24	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$16.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.2¢	$880.7	$925.97	+$45.27
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$43.11	57% 1525-1128 (2653)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$20.96
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.8¢	$675.94	$698.1	+$22.15
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$3.2K	$1.5K	$-1.7K	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100	Yesavg 57.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$146.1	81% 2025-467 (2492)
└ No leg	Noavg 54.6¢	$645.31	$744.44	+$99.13
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.8¢	$682.45	$437.22	-$245.23
RN1CTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$344.14	$376.05	+$31.91	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 56.8¢	$176.17	$202.6	+$26.43	53% 12452-11161 (23613)
SH shiifoo	Noavg 44¢	$123.21	$155.12	+$31.91	61% 2746-1784 (4530)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$67.4	$124.69	+$57.29	62% 4966-3093 (8059)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$77.99	$79.02	+$1.03	50% 3191-3153 (6344)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$30.32	$59.05	+$28.73	53% 14291-12537 (26828)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.8¢	$46.86	$45.98	-$0.88	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.3¢	$39.15	$38.85	-$0.3	55% 5431-4532 (9963)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 83¢	$19.14	$19.14	-$0	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.2¢	$5.2	$10.16	+$4.96	46% 1616-1883 (3499)
LA lavendergooms<$100	Noavg 45¢	$5.52	$7.73	+$2.21	60% 2447-1618 (4065)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$6.15	$6.85	+$0.7	58% 16669-12256 (28925)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,192.59

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$29.24

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

Both legs:

No$1,311.8963.8¢-$16.03

Yes$880.735.2¢+$45.27

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$2,057.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$43.11

Record

57%

1525-1128 (2653)

Both legs:

No$1,381.1662.1¢+$20.96

Yes$675.9435.8¢+$22.15

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,226.42

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,327.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$146.1

Record

81%

2025-467 (2492)

Both legs:

No$645.3154.6¢+$99.13

Yes$682.4557.8¢-$245.23

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$344.14

Value

$376.05

PnL

+$31.91

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$176.17

Value

$202.6

PnL

+$26.43

Record

53%

12452-11161 (23613)

shiifoo

Invested

$123.21

Value

$155.12

PnL

+$31.91

Record

61%

2746-1784 (4530)

Forecastication2CTR

Yes

Invested

$67.4

Value

$124.69

PnL

+$57.29

Record

62%

4966-3093 (8059)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.99

Value

$79.02

PnL

+$1.03

Record

50%

3191-3153 (6344)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.32

Value

$59.05

PnL

+$28.73

Record

53%

14291-12537 (26828)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.86

Value

$45.98

PnL

-$0.88

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.15

Value

$38.85

PnL

-$0.3

Record

55%

5431-4532 (9963)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$19.14

Value

$19.14

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.2

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$4.96

Record

46%

1616-1883 (3499)

lavendergooms<$100

Invested

$5.52

Value

$7.73

PnL

+$2.21

Record

60%

2447-1618 (4065)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.15

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$0.7

Record

58%

16669-12256 (28925)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.7%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$433.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

533.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.