Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CF América vs. CF Pachuca: 1st Half O/U 1.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$174.83

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,930

Combined PnL+$241.59

Under1 trader

Total Value$89.39

Total Shares267

Combined PnL-$66.76

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100	Overavg 73.4¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$236.08	81% 2025-467 (2492)
└ Over leg	Overavg 73.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$125.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.6¢	$715.79	$604.96	-$110.83
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Underavg 57.9¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$442.82	81% 2088-482 (2570)
└ Over leg	Overavg 74¢	$769.28	$691.61	-$77.67
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.9¢	$865.42	$500.27	-$365.15
RN1CTR	Overavg 56.8¢	$724.85	$848.84	+$123.99	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 77.9¢	$282.05	$325.95	+$43.9	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
└ Over leg	Overavg 15.8¢	$54.24	$228	+$173.76
└ Under leg	Underavg 77.9¢	$227.81	$97.95	-$129.86
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 53.2¢	$209.16	$261.37	+$52.2	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 41¢	$109.62	$174.3	+$64.68	62% 4966-3093 (8059)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 58.5¢	$156.15	$89.39	-$66.76	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.04	$1.76	+$0.72	56% 21078-16865 (37943)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,042.53

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$236.08

Record

81%

2025-467 (2492)

Both legs:

Over$1,326.7473.4¢-$125.25

Under$715.7939.6¢-$110.83

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,634.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$442.82

Record

81%

2088-482 (2570)

Both legs:

Over$769.2874¢-$77.67

Under$865.4257.9¢-$365.15

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$724.85

Value

$848.84

PnL

+$123.99

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$282.05

Value

$325.95

PnL

+$43.9

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

Both legs:

Over$54.2415.8¢+$173.76

Under$227.8177.9¢-$129.86

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$209.16

Value

$261.37

PnL

+$52.2

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$109.62

Value

$174.3

PnL

+$64.68

Record

62%

4966-3093 (8059)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$156.15

Value

$89.39

PnL

-$66.76

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.72

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.