Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: CF América 3 - 2 CF Pachuca?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.5¢ · $17 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$16.91
-$0.86
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $10.62 | $9.14 | -$0.49 | 62% 4966-3093 (8059) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $8.14 | $7.77 | -$0.37 | 55% 47028-39201 (86229) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.