Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CF América vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 29¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Yes29¢No71¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$214.88

Smart Money Entry

25.1¢ → 29¢

+16% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares7,767

Combined PnL+$207.72

No5 traders

Total Value$844.01

Total Shares1,129

Combined PnL+$7.16

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$193.78	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
oieshfn345	Noavg 74¢	$745.12	$755.24	+$10.12	57% 1525-1128 (2653)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 25.8¢	$281.21	$272.79	-$8.42	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 22¢	$161.7	$183.75	+$22.05	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$104.3	$118.52	+$14.22	53% 14291-12537 (26828)
LonnieHawkinsCTR	Yesavg 32.2¢	$112.43	$99.46	-$12.97	52% 1676-1578 (3254)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$53	$51.08	-$1.92	53% 12452-11161 (23613)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 78¢	$26.24	$25.23	-$1.01	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 32.7¢	$10	$8.72	-$1.28	71% 18600-7590 (26190)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.6	$7.5	-$0.1	55% 5431-4532 (9963)
LA LaarsY<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.9	$4.97	+$0.07	50% 3191-3153 (6344)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.3¢	$3.65	$3.75	+$0.1	58% 16669-12256 (28925)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.92	$2	+$0.08	46% 1616-1883 (3499)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.1	$1.25	+$0.15	56% 1934-1543 (3477)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,273.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$193.78

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

oieshfn345

Invested

$745.12

Value

$755.24

PnL

+$10.12

Record

57%

1525-1128 (2653)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$281.21

Value

$272.79

PnL

-$8.42

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$161.7

Value

$183.75

PnL

+$22.05

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.3

Value

$118.52

PnL

+$14.22

Record

53%

14291-12537 (26828)

LonnieHawkinsCTR

Yes

Invested

$112.43

Value

$99.46

PnL

-$12.97

Record

52%

1676-1578 (3254)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$53

Value

$51.08

PnL

-$1.92

Record

53%

12452-11161 (23613)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$26.24

Value

$25.23

PnL

-$1.01

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$8.72

PnL

-$1.28

Record

71%

18600-7590 (26190)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

5431-4532 (9963)

LaarsY<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

3191-3153 (6344)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

16669-12256 (28925)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.92

Value

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

1616-1883 (3499)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.