Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 16 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CF América win on 2026-10-25?

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 47¢ · $37K held · ended Oct 26

Yes54¢No46¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 76%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.2K

Combined PnL

-$442.13

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 46.5¢

-14% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$22.6K

Total Shares41,279

Combined PnL-$542.25

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares13,042

Combined PnL+$100.11

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 58.9¢	$11.9K	$9.4K	$-2.5K	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 37.4¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$62.98	57% 1525-1128 (2653)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 41.2¢	$4.5K	$4.9K	+$668.91	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.2¢	$2.5K	$3.7K	+$1.2K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$572.61
RN1CTR	Noavg 58.3¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$232.18	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 50.4¢	$3.8K	$3.4K	-$335.9	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.4¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$573.06
└ No leg	Noavg 53.2¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$237.16
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 42.9¢	$1.9K	$2.8K	+$860	51% 1067-1026 (2093)
us391CTR	Noavg 41.6¢	$1.6K	$2.4K	-$1.99	51% 1472-1394 (2866)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 41.2¢	$851.24	$1.3K	+$430.89	53% 14291-12537 (26828)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 49.3¢	$752.85	$946.34	+$193.49	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 52.6¢	$702.73	$829.08	+$126.35	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22	Yesavg 34¢	$340	$380	+$40	64% 1032-578 (1610)
LA LaarsYCTR	Noavg 68¢	$339.99	$337.49	-$2.5	50% 3191-3153 (6344)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$352.74	$331.86	-$20.88	81% 2088-482 (2570)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.8¢	$244.95	$205.75	-$39.19
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.5¢	$107.8	$126.11	+$18.31
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 41¢	$164	$248	+$84	55% 6546-5254 (11800)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 41.4¢	$140.78	$179.46	+$38.68	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$106.91	$119.64	+$12.73	53% 12452-11161 (23613)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.2¢	$75.95	$92.93	+$16.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.7¢	$30.95	$26.71	-$4.25
BE BetzikoCTR	Noavg 63¢	$113.34	$111.59	-$1.75	55% 5431-4532 (9963)
C4 0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$56.73	$60.78	+$4.05	—
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$59.49	$60.75	+$1.26	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$47.38	$47.82	+$0.45	62% 24131-14569 (38700)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$33.03	$32.79	-$0.24	50% 16195-16429 (32624)
LonnieHawkins<$100	Yesavg 37.7¢	$35.17	$29.27	-$4.09	52% 1676-1578 (3254)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 61.3¢	$15.45	$16.2	+$0.75	58% 16669-12256 (28925)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$2.48	$3.25	+$0.77	46% 1616-1883 (3499)
GH ghostorderCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$2.22	$2.24	+$0.02	68% 4026-1937 (5963)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$11,882.83

Value

$9.4K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$5,399.79

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$62.98

Record

57%

1525-1128 (2653)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$4,528.36

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$668.91

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

Both legs:

No$2,47841.2¢+$1.2K

Yes$1,717.3257¢-$572.61

RN1CTR

Invested

$3,674.68

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$232.18

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,754.63

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$335.9

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

Both legs:

Yes$2,328.450.4¢-$573.06

No$1,426.2353.2¢+$237.16

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$1,930

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$860

Record

51%

1067-1026 (2093)

us391CTR

Invested

$1,595.49

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$1.99

Record

51%

1472-1394 (2866)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$851.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$430.89

Record

53%

14291-12537 (26828)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$752.85

Value

$946.34

PnL

+$193.49

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$702.73

Value

$829.08

PnL

+$126.35

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22

Yes

Invested

$340

Value

$380

PnL

+$40

Record

64%

1032-578 (1610)

LaarsYCTR

Invested

$339.99

Value

$337.49

PnL

-$2.5

Record

50%

3191-3153 (6344)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Invested

$352.74

Value

$331.86

PnL

-$20.88

Record

81%

2088-482 (2570)

Both legs:

No$244.9573.8¢-$39.19

Yes$107.832.5¢+$18.31

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$164

Value

$248

PnL

+$84

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$140.78

Value

$179.46

PnL

+$38.68

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$106.91

Value

$119.64

PnL

+$12.73

Record

53%

12452-11161 (23613)

Both legs:

No$75.9555.2¢+$16.98

Yes$30.9537.7¢-$4.25

BetzikoCTR

Invested

$113.34

Value

$111.59

PnL

-$1.75

Record

55%

5431-4532 (9963)

0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100

Invested

$56.73

Value

$60.78

PnL

+$4.05

Record

—

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$59.49

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$1.26

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.38

Value

$47.82

PnL

+$0.45

Record

62%

24131-14569 (38700)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$33.03

Value

$32.79

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

16195-16429 (32624)

LonnieHawkins<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.17

Value

$29.27

PnL

-$4.09

Record

52%

1676-1578 (3254)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$15.45

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$0.75

Record

58%

16669-12256 (28925)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.48

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.77

Record

46%

1616-1883 (3499)

ghostorderCTR<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0.02

Record

68%

4026-1937 (5963)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.