Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$773.27
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
36h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Optimus- | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $546.53 | $1.4K | +$851.79 | 61% 1185-750 (1935) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 68.2¢ | $462.5 | $450 | -$12.04 | 51% 269-258 (527) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $154.5 | $247.5 | +$93 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.2¢ | $307.13 | $202.5 | -$105.04 | |
 StarMasterCTR | Noavg 52.6¢ | $525.99 | $450 | -$76 | 53% 1775-1569 (3344) |
 tetraseCTR | Noavg 58¢ | $116 | $85 | -$31 | 60% 782-531 (1313) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 55.9¢ | $382.21 | $56.82 | +$28.48 | 36% 13289-23211 (36500) |
Optimus-Invested
$546.53
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$851.79
Record
61%
1185-750 (1935)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$462.5
Value
$450
PnL
-$12.04
Record
51%
269-258 (527)
Both legs:
StarMasterCTRInvested
$525.99
Value
$450
PnL
-$76
Record
53%
1775-1569 (3344)
tetraseCTRInvested
$116
Value
$85
PnL
-$31
Record
60%
782-531 (1313)
Invested
$382.21
Value
$56.82
PnL
+$28.48
Record
36%
13289-23211 (36500)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.