Kawkab AC vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: Kawkab AC 1st Half O/U 0.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$358.11

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 99.6¢

+22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,620

Combined PnL+$424.34

Under1 trader

Total Value$66.22

Total Shares2,649

Combined PnL-$66.22

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 95¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$30.93	95% 14231-820 (15051)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 95¢	$500.01	$513.17	+$13.16	75% 2398-790 (3188)
AR ARocky33	Overavg 27¢	$142.1	$513.14	+$371.04	76% 3239-1035 (4274)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 94.8¢	$600	$307.9	+$9.2	64% 879-492 (1371)
CL claudesportsCTR	Underavg 5¢	$132.45	$66.22	-$66.22	45% 189-232 (421)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$1,189.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$30.93

Record

95%

14231-820 (15051)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$500.01

Value

$513.17

PnL

+$13.16

Record

75%

2398-790 (3188)

ARocky33

Over

Invested

$142.1

Value

$513.14

PnL

+$371.04

Record

76%

3239-1035 (4274)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$600

Value

$307.9

PnL

+$9.2

Record

64%

879-492 (1371)

claudesportsCTR

Under

Invested

$132.45

Value

$66.22

PnL

-$66.22

Record

45%

189-232 (421)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.