Macron out by December 31, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
5
No 100%
$3.8K
$64.97
93.1¢ → 94.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 94%
Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Late
506h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL OLOTH | Noavg 92.6¢ | $978.02 | $1.1K | +$28.88 | 96% 722-29 (751) |
 wish- | Noavg 93.1¢ | $871.26 | $1.0K | +$17.66 | 78% 1120-308 (1428) |
AV aviato | Noavg 94¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | +$5.08 | 85% 2379-404 (2783) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 93.9¢ | $878.86 | $420.91 | +$11.17 | 36% 13223-23096 (36319) |
 Donny.T | Noavg 90.4¢ | $206.83 | $209 | +$2.17 | 72% 466-178 (644) |
Invested
$978.02
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$28.88
Record
96%
722-29 (751)
wish-Invested
$871.26
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$17.66
Record
78%
1120-308 (1428)
Invested
$1,081.97
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$5.08
Record
85%
2379-404 (2783)
Invested
$878.86
Value
$420.91
PnL
+$11.17
Record
36%
13223-23096 (36319)
Donny.TInvested
$206.83
Value
$209
PnL
+$2.17
Record
72%
466-178 (644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.