Will FC RFS win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$2.2K
$25.33
84.2¢ → 93¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Yesavg 84.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$135.56 | 55% 1303-1046 (2349) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 84.7¢ | $481.4 | $467.56 | -$13.84 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 24.4¢ | $323.23 | $224.95 | -$98.27 | 52% 16312-14865 (31177) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 81¢ | $64.8 | $66.4 | +$1.6 | 50% 8825-8766 (17591) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $30 | $16.12 | +$0.84 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 89.9¢ | $11.3 | $10.74 | -$0.56 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
Invested
$1,284.21
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$135.56
Record
55%
1303-1046 (2349)
Invested
$481.4
Value
$467.56
PnL
-$13.84
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$323.23
Value
$224.95
PnL
-$98.27
Record
52%
16312-14865 (31177)
Invested
$64.8
Value
$66.4
PnL
+$1.6
Record
50%
8825-8766 (17591)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$30
Value
$16.12
PnL
+$0.84
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.3
Value
$10.74
PnL
-$0.56
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.