Will FK Auda Riga win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 97¢ · $983 held · ended Oct 25

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$982.52

Combined PnL

$54.47

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 97.2¢

+46% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$771.13

Total Shares967

Combined PnL+$126.76

No2 traders

Total Value$102.22

Total Shares331

Combined PnL-$72.29

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 65.9¢	$357.64	$382.52	+$24.88	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 70.8¢	$241.93	$329.81	+$87.88	50% 8797-8727 (17524)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 63.4¢	$110.43	$109.16	-$1.27	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.4¢	$63.4	$70.5	+$7.1
└ No leg	Noavg 35.9¢	$47.03	$38.66	-$8.37
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 52.5¢	$165.52	$93.07	-$72.45	59% 13855-9624 (23479)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$38.9	$51.75	+$12.85	55% 43485-35791 (79276)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$8.99	$9.15	+$0.16	58% 1451-1066 (2517)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$5.9	$7.05	+$1.15	63% 22547-13309 (35856)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$357.64

Value

$382.52

PnL

+$24.88

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$241.93

Value

$329.81

PnL

+$87.88

Record

50%

8797-8727 (17524)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$110.43

Value

$109.16

PnL

-$1.27

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

Both legs:

Yes$63.463.4¢+$7.1

No$47.0335.9¢-$8.37

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$165.52

Value

$93.07

PnL

-$72.45

Record

59%

13855-9624 (23479)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.9

Value

$51.75

PnL

+$12.85

Record

55%

43485-35791 (79276)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$8.99

Value

$9.15

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.9

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$1.15

Record

63%

22547-13309 (35856)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.